Challenges and Uncertainty in Offshore Development

Sweden’s wind energy sector has experienced significant growth in recent years, particularly in onshore wind. However, the offshore wind market has faced major setbacks, with all planned offshore wind projects recently canceled. As a result, the future of offshore wind in Sweden remains uncertain, and policy reforms will be necessary before the market can regain momentum.

Installed capacity and growth

• Total capacity: As of mid-2024, Sweden’s cumulative wind energy capacity reached 16.97 GW, with onshore wind accounting for nearly all installed capacity.​
• Onshore wind: Sweden installed 536 MW of new onshore wind capacity in the first half of 2024, bringing total onshore capacity to 16.78 GW.
• Offshore wind: a market on hold: Sweden’s offshore wind sector, once seen as a major growth opportunity, has now stalled following the cancellation of all planned projects. While Sweden has strong offshore wind resources in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea, high costs, regulatory uncertainty, and a lack of clear government support have halted development for the foreseeable future.

Government ambitions: uncertain future for offshore wind

• 2030 target: adjustments needed: The Swedish government had originally aimed for 30 GW of wind energy capacity by 2030, including significant offshore wind expansion. However, with offshore wind projects cancelled, this target will likely need to be revised, with onshore wind playing an even greater role in Sweden’s energy strategy.
• 2050 net-zero target: policy shifts required: Sweden remains committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2045, but the lack of offshore wind development poses a challenge to this goal. Without offshore wind, Sweden must rely more heavily on onshore wind, solar power, and grid interconnections with neighbouring countries to meet its renewable energy commitments.

Current and cancelled projects

• Markbygden Wind Farm (Onshore, Piteå) – One of the largest onshore wind projects in Europe, with a planned capacity of 4.3 GW, contributing significantly to Sweden’s renewable energy supply.
• Önusberget Wind Farm (Onshore, Northern Sweden) – A 650 MW project that remains a key part of Sweden’s onshore wind expansion.
• SwePol Link Offshore Wind Project (Baltic Sea) – Canceled due to policy uncertainty and lack of economic viability.
• Västervik Offshore Wind Farm (Baltic Sea) – Canceled, with no clear timeline for future offshore projects.
• Höganäs Offshore Wind Project (Öresund Strait) – Canceled, reflecting the broader industry-wide pause on offshore wind investments.

Recent developments: the need for policy reform

Government hesitation on offshore wind: Despite initial enthusiasm, Sweden’s government has failed to provide the necessary regulatory and financial support for offshore wind development. The cancellation of projects reflects ongoing challenges, including:

• Unclear permitting processes and regulatory hurdles
• Lack of long-term financial incentives for offshore wind developers
• Uncertainty surrounding transmission infrastructure and grid connections

Investor uncertainty and market withdrawal: Several international energy companies have withdrawn from the Swedish offshore wind market, citing high financial risks and lack of government support. This loss of investor confidence has put Sweden at a disadvantage compared to other European countries that continue to expand offshore wind.

Onshore wind still growing: While offshore wind struggles, onshore wind continues to expand. Sweden remains an attractive market for land-based wind projects, with ongoing investments in new turbines, repowering older sites, and integrating wind energy into the national grid.

Sweden’s wind energy sector remains strong in onshore development, but offshore wind has come to a standstill. All offshore wind projects have been cancelled, and no new developments are expected until government policies change.

If Sweden wants to revive its offshore wind sector, policy adjustments will be necessary to provide financial security, streamline regulations, and rebuild investor confidence. Until then, the Swedish wind market will remain dominated by onshore projects, with offshore wind remaining an uncertain prospect for the future.

This information is updated in March 2025

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